Wild-Eyed Predictions

Predictions? Uh oh.

Full disclosure time. I have a formerly secret life - one I'm trying to let die away quietly. I read for a handful of clients. I mention this in relation to making predictions NOT because I think my predictions will carry any more weight. Noooo. You see, I've learned something really important by reading for other people. It's this:

Never ask a question you don't really want the answer to.

The answers, whether for good or for ill, can be crushing. As a result, I never, ever ask what's going to happen with my writing in the coming year (when I'm reading for myself). I ask what I should focus on - what I should work on for the coming year. I recommend that strategy. It puts you in the driver's seat and it gives you something to work toward. Asking what's going to happen and getting a crappy answer is paralyzing. Getting a favorable answer seems to absolve people of feeling like they have to actually do the work - because their good result is FATED. Yeah. Well. See, how this works is, you pray to get what you want, and then you work like hell going after what you want. Until the restraining order is served.

On to predictions:

Look. I'm nobody. My degree is acting, for heaven's sake. I should be walking around the streets with a hand painted sandwich board that reads: Change is the only constant! Should you stop to listen to my wild-eyed raving, I might whisper this:

I have seen the saturation of the YA market (which we all know is a death knell): it's messy with "Harry Potter meets Alien" tag lines.

or:

Strident voices will continue to insist that only morons aren't self-publishing in this market. Equally strident voices will insist that only publishing houses are the True Authorial Path to legitimacy. Both will go on being wrong.

Or:

Regardless of the economy, despite industry changes, mergers, lines collapsing, new ones forming and contracts of dubious quality, authors will go on selling books.

If you've stayed long enough to hear my predictions, I'll wrap a claw like hand around your arm and tell you that YOUR job doesn't change. No matter what. Write. Doesn't matter what. Doesn't matter for whom. If the story and the characters matter to you, they will matter to someone else, too. Eventually. If at first your story doesn't succeed, try again. And again. Start putting in your 10,000 hours, one hour at a time. Your one million words. Whatever benchmark means you've attained some mastery of your craft. But write. Because if you don't, the rest of your questions about the state of the industry are meaningless.

What's In the Cards?

by Allison Pang

For me, predictions are almost always useless - at least when I try to predict anything for myself. When it comes to the"industry" I can't really say much of anything at all - I keep my ear to the ground and try to make sure I'm in the loop when the big waves crash, but otherwise I try not to get too involved. If I knew how to predict marketing and writing trends, I'd be a best seller by now.

That in mind, I'll leave the industry predictions to the experts, and just focus on myself in this particular post.

Which brings me to a tool that I've used in the past that has been fairly useful: The Tarot. I'm not all that great at reading for myself, but I've had my cards read by others and things were rather scarily correct. (Thinking back to 2009's RT in Orlando - had my cards read by Arwen, who predicted that 1) I'd have some agent trouble and 2) I'd get a three book deal.

And she was correct on both counts (and several others.) I still get my cards read by her about once a year, so I can't recommend her highly enough.

But for this post, I pulled out one of my own decks and thought I'd see what the cards had to say for me. I used the Shadowscapes Tarot deck, which is probably the most beautiful deck I've ever seen. I love it so much I have two decks - a regular and a special edition which came with the "Happy Squirrel" card and a hand sketched original card. And I have both art books that go with them, because they really are that nice.

Anyway - I shuffled them up and did a basic three-card spread (Past~ Present~ Future), and this is what came out:

1) Ace of Pentacles - this card wasn't drawn - it fell out of the deck while I was shuffling. I always pay attention to cards that drop - message from the universe, yo.

Pentacles represent earth and are usually the symbol of money or craftsmanship - and an ace usually means something important - the birth of a child or a project. This card is full of greens, which to me means growth. (And if you look real close at the branches, there are female forms in the bark - everything is all fertile.) Plus the lizards themselves - they're small at the bottom and then there's a big one on the top - feels like it's showing all the stages - from baby to adult.

I'll take it as a good sign - maybe it represents the new project I'm working on.

2) Three of Pentacles (reversed)

This card takes the slot of the past - and the fact that it's the same suite as the Ace is very interesting. You can see on the card that  it's two people working together on their craft. It could mean a partnership or a collaboration. In my case, it was reversed - so that could indicate a struggle or a partnership falling apart.

Going hand in hand with the card that fell out, I think it makes sense. I've been struggling quite a bit with this newest book - maybe a bit of writer's block. Or it could indicate some of the past problems I've had with my publisher - a sort of friction, as it were.

At either rate, it's in my past, hopefully, so that's okay.

3) The High Priestess

This card represents the present. Major Arcana cards usually indicate something big and important.

My eyes are drawn to the owl at her feet and the pomegranate in her hand. The owl always represents wisdom to me (via connotations of Athena) - and  she's carrying a key in her talons.

The pomegranate is an interesting symbol given the time of year and the connection to Persephone.

So what does it mean for me? Probably something along the lines that I hold the key to unlocking my block and my creativity. I've been trudging along with the story, but like Persephone, it's time to emerge from my time in the underworld and kick some creative ass in the sun. (Or moon, as it were.) ;-)

4) The Magician

Another big card, this time representing the future. I adore this card - probably because I've got a soft spot for antlered men (go figure). But the Magician is about harnessing all the elements (which you can see hanging from his wings there - we've got fire, water, air and earth). And once he's got all those under control - well he's obviously creating something very special and magical there.









Overall, it's a nicely positive reading - but as is typical, the Tarot rarely  tells me things I don't already know - in this case, I'm the one in control of my creativity. It's just up to me to get off my ass and do what I need to do. But in the end? It will be totally worth it.

No Big Waves in 2013

Happy First Day of 2013!  Hope the new year has started off with a positive note for all of you lovelies, dear readers.

What are my three predictions for Publishing in 2013? No big waves and lots of lemmings. Here are my conjectures on three categories:

In Technology: 2013 will bring about the advent of the common e-book format platform which operates on all devices. No longer will publishers (independent or corporate) have to worry through which .epub, .mobi, .pdf, .skewmytext they need to shove their releases in order for customers to read the release on their phone, tablet, tv, laptop, or leapfrog. One format to rule them all. (I'd like for it to be called "Mordor," quite frankly.) This will open the door for advertising in e-books in 2014.

Corporate Structuring: I agree with James's notion of every major and mid-sized publisher having a digital-first strategy (the small guys typically launched as digi-first, so they're waiting for the other to catch up). Publishers figured out a cost-effective way to monetize the slush pile ... and this not an industry known for independent thinking or innovation. We'll see the arrivals of more digital-first/only imprints -- but they'll be temporary. Within five years expect digital imprints to be sucked back into the tried-and-true imprints as digital releases become part of the standard publishing processes and "risky releases" are dropped due to P&L decisions.  Dreaded "streamlining" rumors will swirl as corporations take another look at POD possibilities now that contracts signed in the print-only era expire.

Consumer Reach & Retention: E-book growth is going to taper off since technology's early-adopters gave way to mainstream consumption throughout 2012. 2013 will hear more consumer grumblings of quality over quantity in an oversaturated and unpoliced market, but don't expect an answer in a universal ratings system yet -- though a few libel lawsuits due to scathing reviews might gain media attention. Don't expect the next big break-out hit to come from YA, New Adult, or Erotica. By the end of 2013, the market will have had enough of post-apocalyptic inundations in every genre.

Those are my publishing predictions for 2013. Join me in December as I cook up a big ol' pot of crow!